Presidential elections, even though they only occur every four years – can be a time of great change.
With 81% of Americans citing the economy as a major concern in the 2024 election, the question becomes: how will the policies of each candidate shape the landscape for technology companies and the labor market?
Harris: Harris is expected to continue the Biden administration’s focus on regulating large tech companies, particularly in areas like antitrust, data privacy, and artificial intelligence (AI). This could increase compliance costs for companies like Meta, slowing hiring growth as they grapple with legal battles and stricter oversight of their market power.
Harris may also push for tighter regulations around content moderation, leading to an uptick in hiring for roles related to compliance, cybersecurity, and content management.
Trump: Trump, on the other hand, would likely take a more hands-off approach. His administration is expected to reduce regulatory pressure, allowing tech companies to operate with fewer restrictions.
This could encourage faster growth, particularly in innovation-heavy sectors like AI, cloud computing, and autonomous technologies. Less stringent regulations around content moderation would also allow for a leaner hiring structure in these areas, focusing resources on expansion and R&D.
Harris: If Harris wins, we can expect her to support policies that either maintain or increase the corporate tax rate, which was set to 21% under Trump’s 2017 tax cuts. These increases would likely fund public investments in areas like healthcare, infrastructure, and education, but they would also raise the tax burden for tech companies. As a result, companies may reduce their hiring capacity or investment in new projects due to slimmer profit margins.
Trump: Trump has made it clear that he wants to further reduce the corporate tax rate, potentially lowering it from its current 21%. This could result in higher profits for tech companies, enabling them to reinvest in expansion, innovation, and hiring. Lower taxes may particularly benefit large tech firms looking to scale globally, providing them with more capital to grow their workforce.
Harris: Harris has been outspoken about her is likely to support more open immigration policies, particularly regarding H-1B visas. This would allow tech companies to access a larger pool of global talent, addressing the chronic shortage of skilled workers in areas like software development and AI.
Would this expansion create more competition for jobs for American workers? It’s possible, but if companies sponsor more international employees, they may create more jobs in general.
Trump: Trump’s immigration policies could restrict the flow of international talent into the U.S., making it harder for tech companies to fill high-skilled roles. This could create talent shortages, slowing hiring and innovation.
But even in the face of regulatory changes, tax cuts and immigration policies – the election will likely have a short-term impact on the economy, and therefore the job market.
Long term, the economy largely depends on interest rates, which are controlled by the Federal Reserve. Interest rates are dropping, and are at their lowest levels since 2023. In a September statement, the Federal Open Market Committee said they were gaining confidence that inflation is moving toward 2%.
It’s also important to look back at past elections here. For example, JP Morgan found that the ending of lockdowns in 2020 had more of an impact on the economy than the election results, and the financial crisis was the greatest driver behind the economy in 2008 – not the election.
The key takeaway? Both short-term hiring in the tech industry and long-term economic health will be shaped by a complex mix of policies, global events, and central bank actions, no matter who wins the election.
No matter the results, our advice to candidates and companies remains the same
Stay focused on your efforts and don't let external factors dampen your effort. Time and time again, we've seen startups with little brand visibility raise money, land successful deals and attract top talent. Similarly, candidates have successfully secured multiple offers, despite headlines highlighting widespread layoffs and downturns. Keep pushing forward. Step away from your screen for breaks, but persistence WILL pay off.
Let our team help you get where you need to be.
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